基于气候变暖的南京地区花期变化初步研究毕业论文_生态学毕业论文

基于气候变暖的南京地区花期变化初步研究毕业论文

2021-04-27更新

摘 要

随着全球气候变化,南京地区的气候呈现出变暖的趋势,不同植物的花期在新的气候环境下也受到了影响,体现出生态适应性。本文利用南京地区1951-2010年的历史气温、降水量资料,以及IPCC基于B2情景下的未来气候预测,对南京地区1951-2039年的气温、降水量为代表的气候环境变化进行了描述,并以此为基础,对南京林业大学校园内日本樱花、刺槐、绣球、白花杜鹃和七叶树这五种植物的花期进行了研究,结果表明:

(1)气候变暖在南京地区有体现,但1980年以后气温上升速度较之前明显加快,到2030S年平均气温高达16.91℃,较1951-1980年年平均气温15.3℃高1.61℃;同时,气候变暖在该地也体现为降水量增加,到2030S年降水总量达约1400mm,较1951-2010年平均年降水总量1060.0mm高340mm。

(2)随着气温的升高,大部分开花植物的始花期、盛花期、末花期提前,花期时长变长,其中当年平均气温和春季平均气温上升0.1℃时,以刺槐为代表的豆科植物的始花期、盛花期、末花期的提前天数最大,平均分别提前1.5天、1.4天、1.3天,花期时长变长0.2天;

(3)从本文给出的的数据统计得出,气温对花期的影响大于降水量。在“变暖、变湿”的气候趋势下,南京林业大学校园内大部分开花植物花期将遵循增温对于花期变化的影响,即出现“始花期、盛花期、末花期提前,花期时长变长”的趋势。

关键词:气温;降水量;花期;南京地区

The preliminary study on flowering changes in Nanjing based on climate warming

ABSTRACT

With the global climate change, the climate in Nanjing has shown a warming trend. And the flowering of different plants has also been affected in the new environment, showing ecological adaptation. In this paper, the temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010, and the climate in the future estimated by IPCC based on B2 were used to describe the climate change in Nanjing from 1951 to 2039, especially the temperature and precipitation. Based on these, the flowering period of the five plants of Cerasus yedoensis,Robinia pseudoacacia,Hydrangea macrophylla,Rhododendron mucronatum,and Aesculus chinensis in Nanjing Forestry University were studied. The results showed that:

(1) The climate warming is reflected in Nanjing, but the rate of temperature rising in Nanjing was significantly accelerated after 1980. The annual average temperature will be 16.91 degrees in 2030S, which is 1.61 degrees higher than that from 1951 to 1980. At the same time, the climate warming is also reflected in the increase of precipitation, the annual precipitation in 2030S will be about 1400 mm, which is 340 mm higher than that from 1951 to 2010.

(2) With the increase of temperature, the initial flowering period, the flowering period and the late flowering period of most plants were all advanced. As the temperature rises, the flowering is longer. When the annual average temperature and spring average temperature are increased by 0.1 degrees, the initial flowering period, the flowering period and the late flowering period of Leguminosae represented by Robinia pseudoacacia will be advanced by 1.5 days, 1.4 days and 1.3 days, which are the largest. The time of flowering will be 0.2 more days.

(3) From the data given in this paper, the effect of temperature on flowering is more obvious than precipitation. Under the climate change of “warming and wetting”, most plants in Nanjing Forestry University will follow the influence of warming on flowering, which is “the initial flowering period, the flowering period and the late flowering period will be advanced, and the flowering will be longer.

Key words:Temperature; Precipitation; Flowering; Nanjing

目 录

1 前言………………………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 气候变化背景………………………………………………………………………………1

1.2 花期物候变化的影响因素…………………………………………………………………1

1.2.1 气温对花期物候的影响………………………………………………………2

1.2.2 光照对花期物候的影响………………………………………………………3

1.2.3 降水量对花期物候的影响……………………………………………………3

1.3 气候变暖情景下花期物候的模拟研究……………………………………………………3

1.4 研究目的及意义……………………………………………………………………………4

1.5 研究材料和方法……………………………………………………………………………4

2 南京地区历史气候分析…………………………………………………………………………………5

2.1 气温变化……………………………………………………………………………………5

2.2 降水量变化…………………………………………………………………………………7

3 南京地区未来气候分析…………………………………………………………………………………10

3.1 逐年气温、降水量变化…………………………………………………………………………10

3.2 气温、降水量时空分布变化…………………………………………………………11

4 花期变化…………………………………………………………………………………………………14

4.1 日本樱花(Cerasus yedoensis)…………………………………………………………………14

4.2 刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)…………………………………………………………15

4.3 绣球(Hydrangea macrophylla)………………………………………………………………16

4.4 白花杜鹃(Rhododendron mucronatum)…………………………………………………………17

4.5 七叶树(Aesculus chinensis)…………………………………………………………………18

5 气候变化与花期变化关系分析…………………………………………………………………………19

5.1 5种开花植物花期变化与气候变化统计………………………………………………………19

5.2 花期变化与气温、降水量的关系………………………………………………………24

5.2.1 始花期与气温、降水量的关系…………………………………………………24

5.2.2 盛花期与气温、降水量的关系…………………………………………………25

5.2.3 末花期与气温、降水量的关系…………………………………………………26

5.2.4 花期时长与气温、降水量的关系………………………………………………27

结论…………………………………………………………………………………………………29

讨论…………………………………………………………………………………………………30

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